World Bank Sees 23% Rise in Commodity Prices in 2026
The World Bank warns commodity prices will climb 23% this year, led by energy. Lower-income households would be hit hardest.
Key points
- Commodity prices are projected to rise 23% in 2026, according to the World Bank.
- Energy prices are expected to jump 32% this year, after three years of declines.
- Brent crude is forecast to average US$91 per barrel in 2026, up from US$69 in 2025.
- Staple food prices are projected to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027.
The World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% during 2026. According to the agency, the increase will hit lower-income populations around the world hardest.
The report attributes the rise to the armed conflict between Iran and the United States, which has pushed up the price of oil. El Niño is also affecting much of Latin America, hurting farming and some business operations in the region.
Energy is the sector with the largest expected increase: 32% this year, after three years of declines. Brent crude is forecast to average US$91 per barrel in 2026, compared with US$69 in 2025, before falling to US$79 in 2027. Because energy tariff adjustments feed into the prices of other goods and services, the impact would reach households in many countries.
For food, staple prices are expected to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, a cumulative 18%. Conflicts are disrupting grain shipments, El Niño threatens harvests, and higher fuel and fertilizer costs are raising farming expenses.
The projections assume the conflicts will not significantly intensify. If the Middle East conflict worsens, energy prices could rise further. According to the report, overall commodity prices would fall 7% in 2027.
Why it matters
An increase of this size in energy and food would weigh on household budgets, especially for lower-income families in the Dominican Republic and the Dominican community in the United States.