Fitch Projects Dominican Public Debt Will Fall to 47.9% of GDP in 2026

Fitch expects Dominican public debt to decline in 2026, even as the fiscal deficit rises.

Fitch Ratings projects that the Dominican Republic's public debt will fall from 49.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 47.9% in 2026. The figure corresponds to the indicator the agency uses in its sovereign analysis.

According to Fitch, the improvement is due to nominal GDP growth and the appreciation of the Dominican peso. These factors would reduce the debt's relative weight, even as the central government deficit rises from 3.5% to 3.7% of GDP.

The firm estimates that by 2028 the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise moderately to 48.9%. Even so, the country would remain below the 52.5% median for BB-rated sovereigns, that is, countries with comparable ratings.

The report warns that about two-thirds of the debt is denominated in foreign currency, which keeps the country exposed to exchange-rate fluctuations. That share, however, is lower than the 70% reported in 2023.

Fitch also presents a broader measure of public debt that includes obligations inherited from the central bank, which reached 57.9% of GDP at the end of 2025. That figure uses a different coverage than the 47.9% series, so it cannot be directly compared with the projection.

According to the same report, a lower debt-to-GDP ratio means obligations weigh less relative to the size of the economy. It does not necessarily mean the nominal amount owed will decline.